Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app
FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android
WATCH “Preparing for the Storm”
WATCH “The Ins & Outs of Hurricane Season”
READ the First Alert Hurricane Center “Survival Guide”
LISTEN & WATCH “Surviving the Storm” - WOKV Radio & Action News Jax
***** ALWAYS CHECK & RE-CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST & UPDATES! *****
REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage that might occur.
*** LOCAL (Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.) IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS: None. We will continue to have rough seas & surf this week due to strong, persistent onshore flow causing some minor flooding at times of high tide along the coast, intracoastal, St. Johns River & its tributaries.
The Atlantic Basin Overview:
** Tropical depression #17 formed over the Eastern Atlantic a week ago Sat. morning & was upgraded to tropical storm “Philippe” late in the afternoon...
Philippe’s continues to be very poorly organized with the heaviest rain well southeast of the “center”. Philippe has made the turn northward through as Philippe reaches the western edge of the Bermuda high which is displaced well to the east ... helped out by a strong approaching upper level trough from the west (which will drive a strong cold front deep into the Gulf & Western Atlantic this weekend). There will continue to be heavy rain & rough seas & surf for some of Puerto Rico & the most northeast Caribbean islands due to how lopsided Philippe is. Most of the squalls are over the eastern & southeast part of the circulation which should keep the strongest winds east of Puerto Rico but with occasional bouts of heavy rain.
Philippe will impact Bermuda by late Thu./Fri. and possibly the far Northeast U.S. (Maine), Newfoundland & Nova Scotia by late in the upcoming weekend as Philippe interacts with a strong mid-latitude non-tropical cyclone.
Check out the upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean. The warmth is very deep. But keep in mind warm ocean temps. alone doesn’t necessarily equate to a “big” hurricane season (need other ingredients & factors to be favorable too) but it’s obvious there is a lot of very warm water at great depths over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico stretching eastward all the way into the Central Atlantic:
Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):
October tropical cyclone origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for October:
Wind shear:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.
2023 names..... “Sean” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colors are expanding dramatically as we near the peak of the hurricane season.:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:
East/Central Pacific:
Lidia:
West Pacific:
“Koinu” - forecast to impact Taiwan over the next couple days:
Global tropical activity:
Cox Media Group